AG: Europe's Industrial Rebound: The Power of Mean Revision

RTT News details:

Eurozone industrial new order growth quickened in November, led by Portugal, Finland and Germany, official figures showed Monday. Industrial orders rose 2.1% month-on-month in November, after rising 1.4% in October, the European Union Statistical office Eurostat said. On an annual basis, industrial order growth accelerated to 19.9% from 14.8% recorded in the preceding month. The rise exceeded the 17.5% increase economists had forecast. The below charts show that much of this is purely a rebound off lows, with a relatively strong relationship between those reporting strong results in 2010 off of lower figures in 2009.

Source: Eurostat

AG: European Retail Sales Decline

Reuters details:Euro zone retail sales unexpectedly fell in December with equal declines in food

and non-food sectors, a sign that consumers in the single currency bloc were reluctant to splurge even in the key holiday period.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday retail sales in the 16 countries using the euro fell by 0.6 percent month-on-month, for a 0.9 percent year-on-year decline.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.5 percent month-on-month rise and a 0.2 percent increase year-on-year.
The new data came while European Central Bank policymakers met to decide on interest rates. Economists said they did not expect weak retail sales to prevent the ECB from issuing a warning on inflationary pressures.

The chart below shows the three month change by country and clearly shows the slowdown in aggregate demand within the region.

Source: Eurostat